Strategic Views in a Shifting World: Views from the First Lugano CIO Roundtable
Insights from SFED’s inaugural roundtable of Lugano-based investment leaders
A New Forum for Economic Dialogue
The SFED association (Swiss Forum for Economic Dialogues) held its first quarterly roundtable of chief economists and investment directors from Lugano’s financial sector on May 8, 2025. For this inaugural edition, 8 participants shared their market views and convictions over a 90-minute discussion.
The represented institutions included PKB, BG Suisse Private Bank, Credinvest Bank, BPS Suisse, ODDO BHF, and ESSEDI Asset Management. Corriere del Ticino acted as media partner.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Slowdown and Diverging Policies
CIOs and economists anticipate a moderate slowdown but without a recession in the U.S., where the GDP is expected to grow around 1.5% in 2025. In contrast, deflationary risks in Switzerland will likely lead to negative rates returning, while the eurozone outlook remains modest but slightly improving toward 2026. Central banks are set to diverge: the Fed is expected to cut rates slowly, maintaining them near 3.5%, while more aggressive easing is likely from the ECB and SNB.
The speakers addressed also some insights on the U.S. public debt, especially in relation to the current economic measures set by the Trump administration — a developing theme that reflects the willingness to weaken the dollar in order to boost reindustrialization, despite the risk of fueling inflation, raising financing costs, and undermining investor confidence in U.S. assets.
Strategic Allocation: no major changes despite the evolving situation
Amid uncertainty, strategists favor a balanced allocation with continued exposure to equities and without important decreases in their U.S. allocation. Artificial Intelligence and technology are still seen as a key opportunity and an engine of growth in equities. In fixed income, expectations center on gradual rate cuts with stable long-end yields. Gold remains a key diversification opportunity, with the majority of the CIOs targeting to continue to buy and hold the metal
On the forex side, the speakers discussed the current weaking of the Dollar and the possible development in the near term, with a consensus agreeing on a USD/CHF rate at 0.80 in the near term. The Swiss Franc will likely to continue its appreciation regardless of possible interventions of the SNB. In real assets, gold remains a key diversification opportunity, with the majority of the CIOs targeting to continue to buy and hold the metal. Silver might also gain momentum given the high ratio of its price with the one of gold.
Global Uncertainty and Geopolitics: Trump’s Policies, Energy and Defense
The discussion was characterised by a strong emphasis of the uncertainty given by Donald Trump’s policies and their consequences on the financial markets. Recent news regarding tariffs, geopolitical matters, energy and defence, were also addressed during the roundtable, with insights on the U.S. and Europe.
The outlook for the U.S. was a central topic, with participants debating the potential consequences of active Dollar devaluation strategies proposed by the new administration, as well as the possible impact of the mid-term elections next year on the current policies put in place by the Trump administration.
