SFED Roundtable in Lugano – Q4 2025
The SFED association (Swiss Forum for Economic Dialogues) held its second quarterly roundtable of chief economists and investment directors from Lugano’s financial sector on November 11, 2025.
Ticino Management acted as media partner.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Slower Growth and Policy Divergence
Inflation was described as less cyclical and more institutionalised, with persistent fiscal outlays and demographic trends limiting the return to pre-pandemic price stability. The U.S. fiscal deficit and defence spending—now near USD 1 trillion annually—continue to fuel demand, while Europe’s heavy welfare burden restrains flexibility. Participants noted that the 2% inflation target may lose credibility as a policy anchor, given that public debt ratios near 100% of GDP make mild inflation fiscally convenient. Commodity prices, energy bottlenecks, and rising capex in infrastructure and semiconductors are expected to maintain a floor under global inflation.
Public spending on energy, defense, and re-industrialization continues to support demand but may keep inflation above central bank targets. Monetary policy divergence was a key theme: the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to ease gradually, while the ECB and SNB are seen as more accommodative amid softer growth. Participants also flagged U.S. debt concerns and tariff-related headlines as potential triggers for short-term risk-off episodes.
Geopolitics and Structural Spending Trends
The roundtable emphasized that war-related and security expenditures are structural rather than cyclical. European defense capacity faces significant bottlenecks, with long lead times and limited production output, pointing to multi-year disbursement cycles. Energy transition policies were described as uneven across Europe and highly sensitive to national cost structures.
Market Themes and Technology Disruption
On markets, there was no consensus on an equity bubble. Earnings and cash flows remain solid, supported by record U.S. buybacks, corporate deleveraging, and liquidity in AI and technology leaders. The consensus favoured observing rather than anticipating corrections: reacting to shocks instead of pre-emptive de-risking. Regionally, the U.S. was viewed as the structural growth and earnings engine; Europe, constrained by regulation and slow adaptation, may benefit from selective industrial and energy themes; Switzerland remains a stable, high-quality market with disciplined balance sheets and resilient exporters despite the strong franc.
